In Focus
Horizon scanning and the Emerging Pathogens and Parasitology subgroup
An opportunity for broader international participation
The Emerging Pathogens and Parasitology subgroup (EPP) of the ISBT TTID Working Party is developing a more structured approach to horizon scanning, an effort designed to identify early and potentially weak signals of emerging risks and opportunities before they become established problems for blood systems.1
At the meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the EPP subgroup reported on its most recent activities and proposed a workflow based on discussions and surveys conducted among members. A major challenge identified by the group is that members are busy professionals with limited time to continuously search for new information. Existing membership also remains concentrated in North America and Western Europe, highlighting the importance of expanding participation to other regions and involving early-career professionals.
The surveys conducted by the subgroup explored how members search for new information, which sources they use and how frequently they conduct such searches. Respondents expressed interest in artificial intelligence, although there was uncertainty about how these technologies should be implemented. Emerging pathogens and infectious risks dominated discussions, but the group emphasized that horizon scanning should not be restricted to threats. New technologies, vaccines, pathogen-reduction approaches and other scientific opportunities may also warrant international attention.
This distinction is central to the concept of horizon scanning. Surveillance generally monitors known or suspected threats, whereas horizon scanning seeks early signals of something that may not yet be fully recognized. The objective is to identify weak signals that could eventually become significant infectious risks, or potentially important scientific opportunities. The proposed approach would use structured variables to guide automated searches. Rather than asking EPP subgroup members or a system to search randomly for emerging information, the group would first define a specific question and identify the variables required to answer it. These variables could then be incorporated into Boolean search strings used by web-crawling tools. The resulting information could be reviewed internally and transformed into useful knowledge products.
The example discussed during the meeting was arbovirus emergence. Questions such as why West Nile virus has emerged or become endemic in some regions but not others, whether chikungunya or dengue could establish transmission in new settings, and how climate change might modify these risks demonstrate the kind of questions that horizon scanning could address. The process begins with the question, followed by identification of the variables needed to answer it and construction of a structured search strategy.
Figure 1: Horizon scanning cycle from signal identification to evidence generation, knowledge translation and communication.
A further objective is to determine how information generated through horizon scanning should be translated into products useful to the blood community. Potential outputs discussed included surveys, manuscripts, dashboards, fact sheets, white papers, risk assessments, abstracts and case studies, as well as tabletop exercises. Knowledge translation was presented as the process of transforming information into products that can educate stakeholders, support decision-making and potentially influence policy or resource allocation. The subgroup therefore sees horizon scanning not as an end in itself, but as part of a broader cycle: identify weak signals, assess their relevance, generate evidence, translate that evidence into usable products and communicate the implications to the transfusion community (Figure 1).
The proposed workflow also creates an opportunity for broader international participation. The subgroup is actively seeking new members, particularly early-career professionals and individuals from regions currently underrepresented within the group. Increasing geographical diversity could strengthen the system by bringing in perspectives from areas where emerging infections or technological changes may first become apparent.
References
- Drews SJ, Wendel S, Custer B, Busch MP, Ramirez-Arcos S, McDonald C, Candotti D, Faddy HM, Rader B, Jacobs JW, Lieshout-Krikke R, Spencer BR, Renaud C, Lewin A, O'Brien SF, Bloch EM; ISBT TransfusionâTransmitted Infectious Diseases Working Party. Emerging Pathogens and Parasitology Subgroup. A congress report of the new Emerging Pathogens and Parasitology Subgroup within the ISBT Working Party on Transfusion-Transmitted Infectious Diseases. Vox Sang. 2026 Mar;121(3):390-398. doi: 10.1111/vox.70162. Epub 2025 Dec 15. PMID: 41397835.
